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As the global demand for silver continues to outpace supply, concerns are mounting about the sustainability of above-ground silver reserves. This article explores an estimated timeline for when the persistent yearly deficit might begin to exert significant pressure on physical silver availability. We will be starting with an assessment of current above-ground stocks in million ounces, based on the most reliable sources available as of July 15, 2025. Then we’ll dive into the yearly average silver deficit. Finally, we’ll do the math to determine how many years we have till silver is re-classified as un-obtanium.
The chart above shows the shrinking stock of silver in the London Bullion Market Association’s vault (a major holder of silver and gold for large banks) from a peak of nearly 1.2 billion ounces in 2020 to around 750 million ounces in 2025. *LBMA.org
Current Physical Silver Availability
Estimating the total physical silver available above ground involves analyzing data from reputable sources such as the Silver Institute, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and industry reports. Historical production and current inventories suggest that approximately 1.74 million metric tons (or about 55 billion ounces) of silver have been mined since ancient times. However, much of this has been consumed in industrial applications, jewelry, and other uses, leaving a smaller fraction as investable or readily available stock.
Historically, silver was prized in ancient Egypt often valued more than gold due to its scarcity. The earliest silver artifacts date to 4000 BCE in Anatolia, but Egypt’s use peaked around 3000 BCE for reflective surfaces and jewelry. While medieval Europe used it to mint coins like the Byzantine solidus, reflecting its early role in trade and adornment—much of which is now lost to industrial or decorative demand.
Greek Drachma: Minted from 600 BCE, this silver coin featured Athena or an owl and was a staple of ancient Greek commerce. A single drachma could buy a day’s labor or a small amphora of olive oil in 500 BCE.
Recent data from the Silver Institute and Metals Focus indicates that identifiable above-ground silver, including reserves in vaults (e.g., LBMA and COMEX) and off-exchange holdings, is estimated to be around 3.4 to 3.6 billion ounces. Differing analyses from organizations like the Silver Institute suggest a more conservative estimate of investable-grade silver at approximately 1.5 to 2 billion ounces, with free-float availability (unencumbered stock available for withdrawal) potentially as low as 155 to 900 million ounces due to locked-up ETF holdings and tight market conditions. Given the variability, a reasonable midpoint estimate from the most trustworthy sources, adjusted for industrial consumption and current vault levels, places available above-ground silver at approximately 1,800 million ounces as a working figure for this analysis. This reflects a cautious average, acknowledging the decline in inventories (e.g., from 1.1 billion ounces in 2022 to around 765 million ounces in London vaults by June 2025).
Yearly Silver Deficit
The silver market has experienced a structural deficit for several years, driven by robust industrial demand (e.g., photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI applications) outstripping mine production and recycling. The Silver Institute reports deficits ranging from 148.9 million ounces in 2024 to 237.7 million ounces in 2022, with a projected deficit of 117.6 million ounces in 2025. Over the past four years (2021-2024), the cumulative deficit has reached 678 million ounces, equivalent to 10 months of global mine supply. For a simplified estimate, let’s use an average yearly deficit of 180 million ounces, based on the trend from 2021 to 2025. For a deeper dive into the statistics behind this deficit, refer to our previous article “Why Are We Running Out of Silver?“, which explores the supply-demand dynamics in detail.
Data from https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/silver-statistics-and-information
Estimating the Time Frame
To estimate how long it might take for the yearly deficit to grind down the available above-ground stock, we can use the following calculation:
- Current Estimated Availability: 1,800 million ounces.
- Average Yearly Deficit: 180 million ounces.
- Years to Depletion: Divide total availability by the yearly deficit:
- 1,800 million oz÷180 million oz/year=10 years
This suggests that, if the average deficit of 180 million ounces persists annually without new supply increases or changes in demand, the available above-ground silver could be depleted in approximately 10 years, around mid-2035. However, this is a simplified model. Real-world factors—such as increased recycling (projected at 195 million ounces in 2025), new mine developments (e.g., Salares Norte in Chile), or shifts in industrial demand—could extend this timeline. Conversely, a growing deficit, 300 million ounces being at the larger end of estimations.
The (potential) Future Timeline of Silver
10 Years
Based on an estimated 1,800 million ounces of available above-ground silver and an average yearly deficit of 180 million ounces, pressure on physical availability could become significant within a decade, potentially by 2035, if current trends hold. This timeline hinges on the persistence of supply constraints and demand growth, particularly in green technologies.
Caveat on Silver Reserves and Stocks:
This article focuses on the depletion of above-ground silver stocks (estimated at 1,620 million ounces, adjusted for a 10% emergency reserve), not the exhaustion of in-ground reserves, which stand at 640,000 metric tons (20.6 billion ounces) per USGS 2024 data. The crisis lies in our inability to mine silver fast enough to meet the 174.4 million ounce annual deficit (2021-2024 average), with production lagging at 25,000 tons in 2024. As above-ground stocks face increasing stress, governments worldwide are likely to hoard strategic reserves for military and infrastructure needs, following Russia’s public move to build a silver stockpile, potentially accelerating the depletion timeline.
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Sources
- London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Vault Data: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/vault-data.
(Provides monthly silver vault holdings, e.g., 23,791 metric tonnes or ~765 million ounces as of June 2025.) - CME Group COMEX Warehouse Stock Reports: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/files/silver-warehouse-stocks.html.
(Offers daily silver stock updates, including the latest report of 497 million ounces combined on July 15, 2025, with 196M registered and 301M eligible.) - Silver Institute World Silver Survey 2025: https://www.silverinstitute.org/.
(Features annual reports and forecasts, e.g., a projected 117.6 million ounce deficit for 2025 and historical deficits like 184.3 million ounces in 2023.) - FXStreet Silver Market Analysis: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/is-there-really-a-shortage-in-silver-202404221504 .
(Discusses COMEX inventory declines to 291 million ounces by mid-2024 and LBMA stock drops from 1.2 billion ounces in 2021.) - Crux Investor Silver Market Insights: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/articles/strengthened-silver-companies-drive-outsized-return-potential .
(Highlights a 2023 deficit of 184.3 million ounces and inventory declines in COMEX and LBMA.) - MetalsDaily Silver News: https://www.metalsdaily.com/silver/
(Provides live silver news and price data, useful for context on market trends in 2025.) - Money Metals Silver Institute Interview: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/05/23/silver-demand-surges-despite-market-headwinds-002892
(Covers the 2025 World Silver Survey, noting a 148.9 million ounce deficit in 2024.)
